Will petrol and diesel prices rise or fall next month?
FillRadar's price outlook tells you which way UK pump prices are likely to move over the next month, so you can decide whether to fill up now or wait. It forecasts the direction only, says so plainly, and keeps score of how often it has been right.
trending_up How the forecast works
Pump prices follow the wholesale cost of fuel, with a delay of several weeks. The outlook measures that link instead of guessing at it.
- Read the market every day. The price of Brent crude is converted into pence per litre at the day's pound-to-dollar rate, so a weaker pound counts as well as dearer oil.
- Compare four weeks. A week's average now is compared with a week's average four weeks ago. Averaging stops one volatile trading day from flipping the call.
- Match it against history. The size of the move is matched to how pump prices behaved after similar moves in past years, separately for petrol and diesel.
- Publish only a clear signal. If crude moved by less than about 5%, nothing is published. Otherwise the app issues "likely to rise" or "likely to fall" for the next month.
- Score it. 28 days later each forecast is checked against the national average pump price, and the result is kept in an archive you can browse in the app.
"Diesel is likely to fall over the next month. Wholesale crude has fallen over the last four weeks. In the earlier months where it moved that much, pump prices went down in most cases, most often by a few pence a litre. The direction is the forecast; how far is not."
insights How often it is right
In back-tests on historical prices, pumps moved in the forecast direction in roughly 81 to 85% of the cases where the model gave a signal, depending on the fuel. That is a measure of the past, not a promise: a duty change, a supply shock or retailers holding margins can break the pattern.
Because back-tests can flatter a model, every live forecast is kept and scored, including the ones that turn out wrong. Forecasts issued a day apart overlap, so they are not counted as separate proof of accuracy.
rule What it does not do
- It does not predict exact prices or how far they will move. It shows how far they moved in similar months, as context.
- It is national. Your local forecourt can move differently from the UK average.
- It is not financial, purchasing or travel advice. Always check the price at the pump.
notifications_active Getting the outlook
The outlook is free for signed-in users. The latest one is in the app, and you can get a push notification when a new forecast is issued, or switch that off in your notification settings. Pair it with price alerts on the stations you use, and you know both where and when to fill up.
quiz Forecast questions
Will petrol prices go up or down next month?
FillRadar publishes a direction only when wholesale crude has moved enough over the last four weeks to be a clear signal. Signed-in users see the latest outlook in the app and can get a notification when a new one is issued.
How accurate is the fuel price forecast?
In back-tests on historical prices, pump prices moved in the forecast direction in roughly 81 to 85% of the cases where the model gave a signal, depending on the fuel. Past accuracy is not a guarantee, and every live forecast is scored against what pumps actually did 28 days later.
Does FillRadar predict how much prices will change?
No. The direction is the forecast. The app shows how far prices moved in similar months in the past, but the size of a move is not predictable enough to promise.
Why is there sometimes no forecast?
If crude has moved by less than about 5% over four weeks, the signal is too weak to call, so nothing is published.
Is the price outlook financial advice?
No. It is an informational indication of likely direction, not financial, purchasing or travel advice. Always check current forecourt prices.
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